ABARES forecast record ag exports

by | Sep 7, 2022 | Australia, Forecast

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) expects Australian farm exports to reach a record $70.3bn this financial year as global food prices remain elevated.

Despite the higher forecast agricultural export value, rising farm input costs, stabilising livestock re-stocker activity and possibly too much rain in some areas means farmgate output is likely to be 4% down on the year before. Australia’s gross value of agricultural production is expected to dip to $82.8bn, down from $85.3bn in 2021/22. The harvest is forecast to be near-record levels due to good soil moisture conditions and a wetter than average spring outlook. The combination of exceptional growing conditions and high global prices will benefit Australian agricultural production and exports. ABARES say global inflation and rising costs of farm inputs such as fertiliser, fuel, electricity and labour could cloud outlook for demand and farm incomes.

Meanwhile, ABARES September Crop Report predicts a winter crop of 55.5mt, the fourth highest on record and well above the 10-year average. Favourable winter conditions combined with late winter rainfall in Victoria, SA and WA has set the season up well. While excessively wet conditions in Qld and NSW could potentially impact yields, good conditions in other states mean above average production is still on track. Grain production is forecast to be well above the 10-year average in all states, including the second highest on record in WA and the fourth highest in NSW. The barley harvest is estimated to 12.3mt while canola production is forecast to reach 6.6mt, the second highest on record.