The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science’s (ABARES) 2021/22 forecast and outlook report forecasts $81bn farm output along with record ag exports of $67bn. The forecast is $12bn ahead of prior year’s record and according to ABARES executive director Jared Greenville is due to a combination of record high crop production along with the highest prices in real terms for Australian agricultural produce in 32 years. The sector’s net production is expected to fall 6% to $76bn next financial year. Greenville said increases in income were likely to far outweigh the additional pressure of higher input costs for fuel, fertiliser, chemicals, and labour, but warned farm costs should continue to be monitored as commodity prices come back to normal.
ABARES expects Australian milk production to increase in 2022/23 to 8.9 billion litres, despite falling cow numbers. Milk production is forecast to decline over the outlook period, affected by timing of drought conditions. The average Australian milk price is expected to increase to 59.5c/l from 58.0c/l in the current season. Farmgate prices are expected to remain above historical averages in the outlook period, reflecting continuing global supply constraints and firm demand.