After the three previous triple La Niña event, a drier than average year followed according to Agriculture Victoria climate agronomist Dale Grey. Ample soil moisture reserves meant that grain growers would be able to cope with drier than average conditions. “There has not been four La Niñas in a row but there is no reason there could not be.”
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) three month outlook has a relatively strong likelihood of a drier than average autumn for virtually all of the country and long-term climate models are suggesting El Niño is the most likely possibility this season but Mr Grey said there was no sign in the atmosphere or ocean of a switch in phases happening at present.
Looking ahead, Gray said farmers could utilise improved BoM climate forecasting tools, such as its Forewarned is Forearmed climate pages. “The new tools give users extra information on exactly how wet, dry, hot or cold the coming months could be.”