Australian grain producers are expecting a bumper crop as harvest as exporters look to make up for lost ground in traditional markets. Rabobank is forecasting grain exports to jump by more than 90% on last year to almost 20mt for wheat and 5.6mt for barley. Australian farmers are expected to harvest 47.4m tonnes of winter grains, oilseeds and pulses this year, an increase of 63% on 2019 and 16% above the five-year average. Production expected to produce 28.8mt of wheat, 11mt of barley and 3.3mt of canola.

Wheat and barley prices had fallen back from about $400/t this time last year as domestic stocks dwindled to lows of about $280/t for wheat and $220/t barley. Despite the production increase, prices are not expected to fall to the lows of 2016/17 when Australia harvested its last bumper crop, thanks to the combination of a weaker Australian dollar and a combined year-on-year drop in exports from the EU and Ukraine as well as seasonal production issues emerging in Russia, the US and Argentina.