Australia is facing a hotter and drier winter, with the Bureau of Meteorology warning that El Niño conditions are likely to develop in the coming months. The BoM climate outlook shows a strong signal for below‑average rainfall and above‑average temperatures across much of southern and eastern Australia, including Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia and parts of Tasmania. If El Niño fully forms, the dry pattern could extend into Spring and Summer, increasing the risk of drought and raising concerns about another severe bushfire season.

El Niño typically brings reduced rainfall, higher temperatures and elevated fire danger to eastern Australia, and the Bureau notes that key climate indicators, including warming Pacific Ocean temperatures and shifting atmospheric pressure patterns, are aligning toward an event.