Australia shows below-average rainfall is expected for most of the country’s west and inland eastern parts. Along the east coast in South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania, clear signals are absent with equal chances for above- and below-average rainfall. Temperatures are likely to be above average across the country with a higher chance of unusually warm days across parts of the Southeast. Bushfire season presents an increased risk of fire this summer for parts of central northern NSW, much of southern Victoria and regions in south and west WA.

Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average in the Australian region especially in the east with warmer oceans providing increased moisture and energy. This can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole is decaying and near its end, and La Nina is underway in the Tropical Pacific Ocean but is expected to be weak and short-lived.