The latest long-range forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology suggests above median rainfall is likely to continue across north coastal and southern NSW, Victoria, southeastern SA and eastern Tasmania from December through to February.
This means flood risks remain as Australia is on track to record its second wettest spring on record with areas in inland NSW and central Victoria inundated by floods. High streamflows are likely to continue for most of eastern Australia, while southwest WA and western Tasmania are likely to see low streamflows.
Climate patterns behind rainfall may start to ease, with models indicating La Niña may weaken in early 2023 and the Negative Indian Dipole is weakening and typically ends in early December. Weather systems are further south than normal, which can draw rainfall into eastern Australia. Sea surface temperatures around Australia were the warmest on record in October which can increase rain and moisture in weather systems.
Meanwhile, the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council’s bushfire outlook for Summer suggests above normal fire potential in central western and southern WA, central Australia and inland NSW due to increased fuel loads as a result of significant rainfall. Victoria, NSW and the ACT are expected to have belwo normal fire potential because of increased fuel moisture, the continued wet outlook and reduced fuel loads following the 2019/20 bushfire season.