The latest Bureau of Meteorology summer outlook forecasts a wetter than average summer across eastern Australia with rain to continue.
Sea surface temperatures in the indian and Pacific Ocean continue to impact Australia’s climate and weather, with the current La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean bringing more rain to eastern and northern Australia. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole to the west of Australia provides more moisture for rainsystems across eastern Australia.
These conditions will likely bring above average rainfall across eastern Australia in the coming three months, with drier conditions in western Australia. The chance of unusually wet conditions remains above average, increasing the risk of flooding. Higher than average streamflows are forecast for nearly all catchments on the east coast of mainland Australia and northern Tasmania. The risk of further flooding in already flood-affected areas remain high. The outlook is cooler for parts of eastern mainland Australia, while the rest of the country is likely to experience warmer than average days and nights.
Persistent rainfall means soil moisture is high in many areas; with continued rainfall running off and into rivers. Most eastern water storages have reached capacity and many are spilling. The Murray-Darling Basin North is at 109% capacity, up from 82% at the same time last year, and the Murray-Darling Basin South water storage is at 97% capacity, up from 90% in 2021. Storages in southern Victoria and along the South Australian Gulf, and along the North East of Queensland are at higher levels than last year.
Victoria experienced the wettest October since 2010 and in NSW, it was the wettest October since record-keeping began in 1900. Rivers across eastern states experienced major flooding while rain and cloud cover kept daytime temperatures cooler than average.