According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) latest Climate and Water Outlook, while La Nina conditions have eased slightly, the forecast is still for above average rainfall in eastern Australia from May to July.
Modelling indicates a greater chance of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, which typically brings more rainfall across most of Australia. High streamflows are expected in the southeast and combined with significantly higher than average rainfall in April, flood risks remain for southeastern Australia. Heavy rainfall in April across Queensland and NSW, has filled water storages. NSW southeast coast water storages are now at 99% capacity, well above last year’s 85%. The Murray-Darling Basin saw an early autumn break with April rainfall and is at 86% capacity. Warmer days are likely across southeastern Australia.