After hovering between $9 and $10kgMS for most of the first half of 2022, the commodity milk value (CMV) is closing on $7.50kgMS just seven weeks into the new season. The CMV hasn’t been in this territory since November 2021, and rose as high as $10.21kgMS in April this year. Since than butter spot prices have fallen 20% while SMP has retreated 21%. Importantly for Australian exporters, cheese spot prices have fallen 17% since April.

With most local exporters selling product forward, this precipitous fall won’t be of immediate concern. However with 2022/23 southern region farmgate prices locked in at north of $9.50kgMS there will be increasing nerves in coming months.