The Bureau of Meteorology has issued its outlook for April to June, with below median rainfall likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance), with above average maximum temperature for almost all of Australia. February rainfall was below average for most of south-eastern Australia.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, however there are some signs El Niño may form later in the year. The Bureau has therefore issued an El Niño WATCH, meaning there is around a 50% chance of El Niño in 2023. Most models suggest a neutral state of ENSO (neither El Niño nor La Niña) will persist through the southern hemisphere autumn, with Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures reaching El Niño thresholds during winter.