The Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems has updated the outlook for 2025/26 seasonal determinations, highlighting continued dry conditions and their impact on water availability. In recent months, low rainfall has resulted in below-average inflows into major storages, though flows into the Menindee Lakes have contributed resources to the Murray system.

The Murray, Goulburn, and Loddon systems are expected to begin with about 25% high-reliability water shares (HRWS) and the Campaspe system should receive 100% HRWS on 1 July 2025 due to reserves from 2024/25.

The Broken and Bullarook systems will likely begin with 0% HRWS, reliant on inflow conditions during the year.

If inflows follow an average pattern, 100% HRWS could be reached for the Broken, Goulburn, Loddon, and Bullarook systems by mid-October, while the Murray system may take until December. Due to autumn water releases, storage levels have dropped, with an estimated spill risk of 45% in the Murray and Campaspe systems and 30% in the Goulburn system at the start of July 2025.