The US National Weather Service has declared La Niña officially over, with El Niño favoured to form, meaning drier than average conditions for parts of Australia. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) have echoed the US weather forecaster, saying El Niño is considered likely for Australia with neutral conditions expected to continue between March and May. WMO says there is a 15% chance of El Niño developing in April – June, while the likelihood gradually increases to 35% in May – July. Long-term forecasts for June to August show a 55% chance of El Niño developing however, the forecast is subject to high uncertainty associated with predictions this time of the year.
Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) recent climate outlook forecasts below average rainfall for April to June across Australia, with most surveyed international climate models suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will remain neutral through autumn. The BoM has issued an El Niño WATCH indicating a 50% chance of El Niño in 2023, with most models predicting thresholds will be reached by the end of winter.