EU-27 exports were mixed in January across major product categories we track, with declines for milk powders, fats and dry whey and increases for cheese and lactose.
At 51,847t, SMP exports were down 14.5% YOY the lowest month since October 2017, reflecting weaker shipments into China & HK and MENA (particularly the Middle East). The current and projected EU-27 SMP stock and exportable surplus situation is tight, particularly considering the slow milk growth in key producing countries such as Germany and France. WMP exports continued to track lower in YOY terms, falling 17.4% in January to 23,269t (a 4-month high) which reflects much lower production locally. Most of the YOY decline in January was due to weaker sales into the Middle East. Fat exports were also lower in January – butter fell 7.8% YOY while AMF was 36.1% weaker in YOY terms.
Data for cheese exports to the UK is incomplete at the time of editing but given reported UK imports for the month, we assume shipments of 25,017t to this market in January with total exports of 95,195t. Overall EU-27 cheese exports were up 2.1% YOY in January, but with mixed trends across major regions – growth in the UK, CIS, Northern Africa and SE Asia but declines in the Middle East and South Korea.