EU-27 exports were mixed in November across the major product categories we track, with declines for milk powders and AMF. Cheese volumes were flat while butter and dry whey shipments increased.
At 52,914t, SMP exports were down 11.9% YOY, reflecting weaker shipments into Northern Africa and China & HK. The current and projected EU-27 SMP stock and exportable surplus situation is tight, particularly with slow milk growth in key producing countries such as Germany and France.
WMP exports continued to track lower in YOY terms, falling 16.5% in November, reflecting much lower production locally. Most of the YOY decline in November was due to weaker sales into MENA.
Data for cheese exports to the UK is incomplete at the time of writing but given reported UK imports for the month, we assume shipments of 39,016t to this market in November with total exports of 120,371t. Overall EU-27 cheese exports were flat YOY in November, but with mixed trends across major regions – growth in non-EU Europe and CIS but declines in the UK and Japan. Fat exports were mixed in November – butter rose 15% YOY while AMF was 32.3% weaker. However, on a fat-equivalent basis, butter shipments remain much more significant, and on average roughly 10 times higher than AMF.