August EU-28 milk supply was flat, (based on an average 92% of reported milk), but with mixed trends across major producing countries. German and French milk production for the month contracted by 0.8% YOY and 0.9% YOY respectively. Dutch supply also fell 1.5% YOY – this followed 12 consecutive months of growth. Belgian production also declined, down 2.4% YOY, following 41 months of continuous YOY growth. UK production has tracked generally lower since October last year, and contracted 0.9% YOY in August. These negative trends were offset by growth in Ireland, Poland and the Czech Republic. Irish supply rose 2.9% YOY – this followed a 4% YOY growth in July. Polish output was up 2% YOY – supply has increased in every month since July 2019, but the August expansion was a 3-month low.

According to the most recent available data, French milk production fell 1% in week 39 (ending 27 September 2020). That was the third consecutive weekly contraction, caused by dry weather in some parts of the country. German supply also fell 1% YOY in the same week, following three consecutive weekly increases. According to daily AHDB milk collections data, UK milk supply rose 2.3% in the first three days of October and is expected to continue recovering – this followed a 0.7% expansion in September.