EU-27 supplies rose 0.8% YOY in August, based on our analysis of data reported by Eurostat and AGEA. The overall YOY increase was driven by a 5.4% expansion in Ireland, while France was up 1.1%. Spain output rose 3.1%YOY, with Poland and Italy up 0.9% and 3.6% %respectively. This was more than enough to offset a 0.7% decline in Germany while milk in the Netherlands was down 1.5%.

The positive French number was a big surprise to the market, particularly given how weekly data was tracking during August. According to the most recent data, French milk production fell 2.7% YOY in week 40 (ending 10 October 2021), the eight consecutive weekly contraction. German supply fell 2.6% YOY in week 39, the 19^th consecutive weekly decline. AHDB reports UK production declined 0.8% YOY in the first 10 days of October after falling 0.4% YOY in September.