According to the most recent data, French milk production fell 4.2% YOY in week 36 (ending 12 September 2021), the fourth consecutive weekly contraction. German supply fell 2.3% YOY in the same week, the 16^th weekly decline in a row.

In addition to the reported decline in official July Eurostat figures of 1.9% and 1.2% respectively, trends in both key countries are now worsening even further, with grass quality mostly to blame according to local contacts. We estimate EU-27 July milk deliveries declined 0.5% YOY, while solids output fell 1% as average protein and fat content in milk has fallen close to 2019 levels since the end of 1H-21.