Based on 94% of average reported milk production by Eurostat and AGEA (Italy), we estimate EU27 milk production in November rose 2% YOY or 215mn kg, making it the strongest expansion since June 2021. Irish milk output rose 7.4% YOY in November (the fifth increase in a row) while Germany expanded 3.9% YOY. Poland raw milk supplies again increased in November – up 2.5% YOY, a similar expansion as in the previous two months. Among other major producers, France reported a 1.1% YOY increase in November deliveries while Italy was up 5.1% YOY. Denmark was up 0.5% YOY in November, but overall tracks close to flat since Q2 last year.

According to the most recent data, German supplies were up 4.2% YOY in week 1 (ending 7 January 2023). That was the 18^th consecutive weekly YOY increase. Meanwhile, French milk production fell 1.4% YOY in week 1 this year however, the eight consecutive decline. AHDB reports UK production rose 1.7% in the first 7 days of January after being up 1.6% in December.

Meanwhile, processors in November again focused on SMP/butter. Output of all other products also increased given the large increase in manufacturing milk availability in the month with the exception of cream for direct consumption. The lift in SMP was led by Germany and Belgium. Denmark, the Netherlands and Germany accounted for most of the increase in cheese production for the month.