Estimated EU output was down 1.2% YOY, but some key producers such as Germany, Denmark and Austria have still not published data. Twenty-two EU-27 member countries have so far published January 2021 milk production data on Eurostat, jointly accounting for 69% of milk production on average.

New January data published over the past week included a 3.4% YOY decline in France. That followed a 1.4% YOY decline in December. The contractions reported in weekly data are relatively stronger however, and we estimate the difference between the two sources to average 0.9% points over the five months to January.

According to the most recent data, French milk production fell 1.3% YOY in week 9 (ending 7 March 2021). That was the 22^nd consecutive weekly contraction. German supply fell 1.7% YOY in week 8 – that was the eighth consecutive weekly decline.

Meanwhile, AHDB reports UK production rose 3% YOY in the first six days of March after increasing 1.4% YOY in February.