EU-27 supplies fell 0.6% YOY in September, based on our analysis of data reported by Eurostat and AGEA. The overall YOY decline was despite a 7.4% expansion in Ireland, which was more than offset by declines in Germany (-2.4% YOY), France (-2.4% YOY), and the Netherlands (-4.1% YOY).

According to the most recent data, French milk production fell 3% YOY in week 46 (ending 20 November 2021), the 14^th consecutive weekly contraction. German supply fell 3% YOY in week 45, the 25^th consecutive weekly decline. AHDB reports UK production declined 1.8% YOY in the first 19 days of November after falling 0.6% YOY in October.

Our analysis of EU-27 product mix indicates that despite lower raw milk supplies, cheese output increased 2.5% YOY in September while supplies of milk powders (particularly WMP) and butter was lower. Among major producing countries, the overall growth in cheese in September was driven by larger production in Germany and France, and despite falling output in the Netherlands and Denmark.