GDT 2% weaker

by | Nov 4, 2020 | GDT, Global

GDT prices were pulled lower with weaker Northern Hemisphere sentiment and lower than average starting demand, pulling the index 2% lower. SMP fell 4.4% or US$129/t to average US$2,722/t. Price changes were worse for later deliveries, with C5 doing worst, losing US$188/t. C2 lost 3.2% or US$89/t. The resulting forward curve is flat, with a spread of just US$36/t between C2 and C5. The NZ premium over EU product eroded further, as Fonterra’s MH product lost US$95/t, Arla’s dropped US$50/t, while the US was a distant US$225/t further back.

WMP lost US$52/t to average US$2,985/t, with small losses across all contracts other than the C1 contract, which was pulled back to the pack, dropping to US$2,974/t. C2 shed US$52/t to average US$2,965/t. There were similar changes for regular product, where C2 lost US$55/t to US$2,950/t and later contracts lost US$30-35/t.

Fats went in different directions. Butter continued to improve, gaining US$144/t or 3.9% to average US$3,822/t, with improvements across all contracts but C2 was again the strongest adding 4.8% or US$175/t to US$3,845/t, with smaller gains later. AMF lost 2.6% or US$108/t to average US$4,002/t, with losses progressively weaker for later deliveries, leaving a firming forward profile under US$4,100/t. C2 lost US$162/t to US$3,943/t.

Cheddar slipped 0.4% or US$17/t on average, with small changes across contracts but C2 lost just US$18/t to US$3,747/t. The forward curve firmed with C6 achieving US$3,856/t – the two longer deliveries making small gains since the last event.