Analysis from our Global Dairy Directions platform indicates global trade in milk solids equivalents (MSE) terms fell 0.8% YOY in August, the second consecutive monthly contraction. However, trade for the quarter was still 0.5% ahead YOY, despite high prior-year comparables and generally higher current FOB prices. There were mixed trends in major commodities during August – negative for WMP and cheese, but positive for SMP, fats and dry whey.

WMP trade declined 13.5% in August, despite increased shipments to Sub-Saharan Africa, China & HK and North Africa, as exports to South America and SE Asia tanked. SMP trade was up 6.1% YOY in August, reflecting larger shipments to Mexico, Northern Africa, CIS and Sub-Saharan Africa, and despite much weaker trade into China & HK. With stronger shipments to China & HK, fats finally rebounded, increasing 8.5% YOY in CBE terms during August, but with mixed trends across major import demand regions. Cheese trade has been patchy in recent months and fell 3.1% YOY in August, with EU27-UK trade still subdued in the post-Brexit era.

China dominated the trade league table again although with slower growth in August, with North America a distant second. EU-27 ranked last, with weaker trends in cheese and SMP for the last quarter.