The Resource Manager for Northern Victoria’s outlook for the 2020/21 season is for greater inflows into the Murray, Goulburn and Loddon systems for high-reliability water shares (HRWS). In the Murray system, inflow volumes are expected to be on par with the 2016/17 season with wet inflow conditions in December 2020 and for February 2021. In the Murray system, the probability of higher inflow volumes is 72% for the Dartmouth reservoir and 62% for the Hume reservoir. In the Goulburn and Loddon system, HRWS inflow conditions are also likely to be wet for the 2020/21, like 2016/17. For Goulburn, the likelihood of higher inflows is 74% for the Lake Eildon reservoir and 62% for the Goulburn Weir reservoir. In the Loddon system, Laanecoorie reservoir inflows have a 90% likelihood of higher inflows.

Resource Manager Mark Bailey said flows into the Murray and Goulburn system storages tracked half-way between the average and dry outlook categories, however, flows to date in October were tracking closer to the average outlook category.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Meteorology has flagged that while outlooks indicate wetter than average conditions with the prevailing La Niña, southern parts of Australia are entering into their drier season, so rainfall is not likely to be sufficient to relieve long-term rainfall deficits. This rainfall will also not necessarily lower the risk of days with elevated fire danger.