latest monthly Rural Bank Insights commodity reports highlight lower yield expectations for crops and milk production.

National wheat production for is tipped to fall to around or below 30mt for the 2024/25 season. Frost damage and dry weather at the beginning of spring across some regions are likely to impact yields. However, a wet winter lifted hopes for a bumper WA crop, a dry September has reduced yield potential. Late September rainfall helped stabilise yields by aiding grain fill in later-sown crops, likely maintaining average production. ABARES predicts a national wheat crop of 31.8mt.

Meanwhile, Rural Bank says milk production could tighten through spring due to dry conditions in major dairy regions. Dry weather affected much of Victoria, South Australia, and southern New South Wales in August and September, regions responsible for 75% of the country’s milk production. While long-term rainfall outlooks are positive, similar forecasts earlier in 2024 did not deliver much rain.