The latest climate and weather outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) is for one of the hottest summers on record. The summer forecast shows an 80% chance of minimum temperatures in the top 20% of years. Warmer sea surface temperatures heat the air just above the surface which can influence inland temperatures during periods of onshore winds. BoM’s seasonal model is forecasting the mean temperature across Australia will sit 1.5C above the baseline 1961—1990 average. If these average temperatures materialise, this summer could be in the top five on record.

The wet outlook is contingent on local conditions including warmer seas which will lift cloud and rainfall. The outlook shows up to a 70% chance of above-median rain for parts of Australia’s east with increased chance of wetter start to northern wet season.