La Niña retreats, but first more rain

by | Mar 31, 2021 | Australia, Weather

The latest Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) water and climate outlook suggests that April may be the wettest of the three months ahead. Torrential rain in March affected all states and territories, causing extensive flooding across south eastern Australia with 2-3 times the normal monthly rainfall. While some eastern Australia water storages have filled during March and will rise further in the coming weeks, storages in the southern Murray-Darling basin and southern Victoria are lower than they were last month.   

Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific have warmed to ENSO neutral levels, but trade winds and cloud patterns remain La Niña like, with La Niña impacts expected to continue in the coming weeks. In the next three months, weather systems will transition from La Niña conditions to neutral. As La Niña is on the way out, rainfall is likely to be above average in April with high streamflows likely in eastern and northern Australia. Wet catchments and high streamflows mean the risk of widespread flooding remains in eastern and northern Australia with any further rainfall. Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average in Tasmania and southwest WA but average to cooler than average for the rest of the country.