The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) latest Climate and Water Outlook is for above average rainfall across the eastern half of Australia and cooler than average temperatures for eastern Australia from September to November. Spring is likely to be wetter than average in eastern and central Australia, but drier in the west due to a continuing negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Stream flows are forecast to be higher for most locations for August to October.
The BoM’s El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook is inactive with no strong indication that either El Niño or La Niña will develop in coming months. The current negative IOD event and above average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean more generally are likely to play a bigger role influencing Australian rainfall and temperature patterns.