Bendigo Bank’s monthly dairy update for October warns its full season outlook is likely to be at the lower end of the range of 8.1bn—8.2bn litres due to a slow start to the 2025/26 season.

Season-to-date intake of 1.22bn litres is sitting 0.9% lower than July-August intake in 2022/23—at that time a 30-year low. Low rainfall and drier soils along with a reduced dairy herd are driving lower production and despite a wetter spring forecast, feed shortages are expected to continue.

The bank’s cropping update is mixed with pressure on Australian grain likely to continue given ample global supply, imminent Northern Hemisphere harvest pressure and a heavily oversupplied international market. Australian wheat is facing stiff competition from US wheat in South East Asia—with recent US tenders delivering Soft White Wheat US$8/t—US$13/t cheaper than WA ASW.