EU-27 supplies rose 2.3% YOY in May, based on 25 reporting countries accounting for 98% of average output (excluding Sweden and Luxemburg). Italy accounted for 37% of the total reported growth in May, having increased 10.6% YOY but on a low comparable. Ireland and France milk also rose – up 6.1% YOY and 2.6% YOY respectively. June German and Dutch supplies were both flat in YOY terms.

Output has since slowed. According to the most recent data, French milk production fell 2.8% YOY in week 27 (ending 11 July 2021), the fourth consecutive weekly contraction. German supply fell 1% YOY in week 26 – in both Germany and France, trends in supply have worsened since late June. AHDB reports UK production fell 0.7% YOY in the first 10 days of July after increasing 1.1% YOY in June.