according to the USDA, following a 0.3% YOY decline in November and December. Cow numbers increased by 10,000 head from December, resulting in a 0.4% YOY—or a 41,000 head—increase in the national herd, the greatest expansion since March 2023.This time, USDA “found” 39,000 cows between June and December 2024. The national dairy herd has added 42,000 head since July.

California milk output was down 5.7% YOY, mostly due to the lingering impact of avian influenza. This followed a revised 8% YOY decline in December (from -6.8% YOY in USDA’s January report). Upper Midwest production was up 0.6% YOY, the slowest increase since Sep-24, while Desert States milk output increased 2.9% YOY. Texas has added 40,000 cows relative since January 2023 (but with no growth month-on-month), and accordingly January milk output surged +6.5% YOY.

US milk solids output improved in January by an estimated 1.5% YOY above milk volume, mostly driven by higher fat content.