Milk production declined 0.5% in October according to the USDA. The contraction was the first since May 2020 and followed a revised flat result for September. The overall decline in October was a result of a 0.3% YOY fall in average yields per cow and a 0.1% drop in the national dairy herd. At 9,400m, cow numbers were 14,000 head below the prior month and the same month in 2020. Average yields have now fallen for the third month in a row.

Among major producing states, milk production in Wisconsin rose 2.7% YOY. Output in South Dakota and Texas also increased by 15.3% and 3.9% respectively. This was more than offset by weaker trends in New Mexico (-12.2% YOY) and Washington (-6.9% YOY), while California also declined (-1.3% YOY). Supplies in Pennsylvania fell 3.1% YOY and Ohio milk was down 3.6% YOY.