US milk production was flat in June according to the USDA, reflecting much lower producer margins and a continuing decline in the dairy herd. In YOY terms, June average yield per cow was flat while cow numbers were down 0.1%. At 9,408m, June cow numbers were down 5,000 head from the prior month and 16,000 head below the same month in 2022. This time, the government revised historical dairy herd data and “lost” 13,000 cows between March and May. Including these revisions, the national dairy herd peaked in March and has declined by 36,000 head since with strong cow culling increase reported of 10% on average in recent weeks.

Among major producing states, June milk production rose by 1% YOY in Wisconsin and California was down 1.2% YOY. Texas supplies fell by 5% YOY following a long period of expansion. Milk production in Idaho, South Dakota, Iowa, New York, Michigan and Kansas continued to improve. Supplies continued to decline in New Mexico (-7.1% YOY) and Florida (-1.2% YOY). At the regional level, we estimate the Upper Midwest supplies rose 2.1% YOY while Desert states were down 3.8% YOY.