Milk production expanded 0.2% in September according to the USDA. The increase was the smallest in 16 months and followed a revised 0.6% YOY growth in August. Cow numbers were massively revised – the national milking herd declined again in August, down 25,000 head compared to the prior month to 9.422m. While down on the multi-decade high reached in May, this was still 27,000 head higher YOY. Average yield per cow for September was down 0.1% YOY, the second consecutive YOY contraction. September was the 16^th consecutive month of expansion in US milk output.

Among major producing states, milk production in Washington rose 3.3% YOY. Output in South Dakota and Texas also increased by 14.6% and 2.5% respectively. This more than offset weaker trends in New Mexico (-12.5%) and Washington (-7.9%), while California was just above flat (+0.2%). Supplies in Pennsylvania output fell 2.1% YOY and Florida was down 6.8%.