The October to December climate outlook from Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) predicts above-average rainfall for more of the eastern half of Australia and warmer average temperatures. With above-average rainfall expected across eastern NSW and southeast Qld where soils are wetter than average, the forecast suggests a greater risk of flood. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be above average for most of the country and it is very likely overnight temperatures will be above average across the entire country.

Rainfall and temperature forecasts are driven by predicted warmer sea surface temperatures for October to December in waters to Australia’s  north, east and southeast. Meanwhile, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to persist until early summer, bringing with it above average rainfall in eastern Australia. 

August temperatures were above average for western, southern and eastern Australia. Meanwhile, rainfall was above average for much of the west and east with many sites in NSW reporting their wettest August on record. Across South Australia and Tasmania, August rainfall was below average  with soil moisture in these areas remaining below average. Above average rainfall has increased root zone soil moisture along the eastern seaboard as well as western parts of Australia and Tasmania.