Neutral El Niño, but still mostly wetter than average

by | Jul 27, 2022 | Australia, Weather

August to October rainfall is likely to be above median for the eastern two-thirds of Australia, but below median for western Tasmania and parts of south-western WA. According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the emerging negative Indian Ocean Dipole, along with warmer than average waters around northern Australia, and a neutral to cool phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, are likely to be influencing this outlook.

According to the BoM. most of the eastern half of the mainland has more than double the normal chance of unusually high rainfall (in the wettest 20% of all August–October periods over 1981–2018) rising to over triple the normal chance for parts of the tropics. There is a greater than 80% chance of above median rainfall for much of the eastern two-thirds of the country, tending to a neutral outlook for south-western Victoria and south-eastern South Australia, and below median for western Tasmania. Below median is likely for south-west Western Australia.

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