NIWA expects a potential La Niña to be weaker and shorter. The  latest seasonal climate outlook forecast is for  just over a 50% chance La Niña will even develop.

Across much of the country, more widespread dry conditions are expected, particularly in November with rainfall predicted near or below normal for most of the country. Rainfall in the eastern parts of the North Island is forecast to be average. Temperatures however are expected to be above average across the country. More frequent northeasterly winds could result in a higher-than-usual number of days above 25ºC from November to January.

Soil moisture and river flows are expected to be near average in the east of the South Island and west of the North Island. Near or below normal river flows and soil moisture is expected for all other regions.