Milk production fell 3.8% YOY on a milksolids basis in September and was down 3.2% on a tonnage basis, markingthe lowest September intake in five years. Season to date intake is down 4.0% on the season prior.

The fall in September output was worse than the calculated mid-point by the NZX milk production predictor, but within range. NZX cited continuing issues on farm, climatic conditions affecting pasture growth and ongoing labour shortages. The NZX model forecasts October milk output growth at 0.5% at the midpoint, within a range of -3.9% to +4.9% with the current full season mid-point forecast at -1.3% with growth forecast between October and February. 

Meanwhile, Fonterra revealed milk production fell 3.9% YOY in September with a big dip in North Island production, down 6.3% YOY for the month, while South Island intake was steady (+0.1% YOY). Fonterra’s seasonal production is tracking 3.9% behind the prior year comparative. In the North Island, wet conditions and lower than average sunshine hours led to reduced pasture covers leading into mating. The South Island had normal spring growing conditions leading to favourable pasture covers and milk production.