New Zealand milk production fell 4.9% YOY in August on both a milk solids basis and volume basis. This result pushes the season to date figure to a 4.4% decline in volume and a 4.2% fall in milksolids basis. On-farm conditions have been more wet and cold, with pastures struggling in most regions including Canterbury and the Waikato. The drop in August production continues the trend of declining YOY production occuring since August 2021, interrupted by a 1.1% YOY lift in production recorded in June. August output tracks 8.9% behind the 5-year average.
NZX expects milk production figures will be behind YOY in September in the range -3 to -4% YOY. As a result, peak milk is likely to be muted also, with conditions heading into October improving slightly. Apart from climatic conditions, labour and input costs continue to impact milk production and will not be resolved quickly.