NZX has lowered its current season price forecast by 44c to NZ$9.01kgMS, with a tightened range of NZ$8.79 to NZ9.49kgMS. Two consecutive GDT price falls are crushing milk price expectations and reflect current market volatilty. However, NZX analysts stress the forecast, which is heavily imfluenced by WMP contract prices is mostly derived from 5 auctions of the 24 for the season, along with the prevailing futures forward curve. “There is a long dairy season in NZ ahead; confidence in this forecast is medium due to the time left in the season but is the best forward view currently.”
However, even though the wider macroeconomic factors, particularly with respect to China are currently bearish, NZX notes that a similar trend of GDT auctions was also in play this time last year, with GDT prices tumbling at both auctions in August 2021 before the market turned and moved higher again.
Freshagenda’s current price estimate – based on product sold on previous GDT events and futures prices for product not yet sold – shows a milk value of NZ$9.04/kgms.