New DCANZ data shows the 2025–26 New Zealand dairy season set an all‑time production record. May production rose 5.0% year-over-year on a solids basis, with the season finishing +4.5% ahead of the prior season. On a tonnage basis, milk output lifted +3.6% YOY for the month and was +3.6% higher on the prior season.

NZX said strong production throughout the season was driven by higher cow numbers and more cows remaining in milk later than usual.  The past two seasons mark a shift from industry consolidation back into expansion, driven by strong global dairy prices, better farmgate returns, lower input costs earlier in the year and favourable weather.

NZX believes the strong growth trend is likely to ease as fuel, fertiliser, feed and freight costs rise due to Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions. A predicted “super” El Niño is another major risk. As a result, NZX expects June production to fall about -3.3% YOY, with a slight 0.1% decline forecast for July.