Recent rainfall across Victoria has filled soil moisture profiles to near capacity, driving strong optimism for the state’s winter crops. Agriculture Victoria data shows many key cropping regions are now at or close to 100% soil moisture after good June and early July rainfall, with crops running two to four weeks ahead of their usual growth stage. Mild conditions have also supported rapid development, prompting many growers to revise yield expectations upward.

Farmers and agronomists report that the improved moisture outlook has led to increased fertiliser applications and higher production targets. In northern Victoria, growers have raised wheat yield goals from around two tonnes per hectare to three tonnes, while agronomists in central Victoria are forecasting cereal yields of up to six tonnes per hectare, barley around seven tonnes, and canola up to three tonnes per hectare. Soil moisture levels have also improved across southern New South Wales, boosting confidence ahead of additional forecasted rainfall of 15mm–25mm across much of Victoria.