According to USDA’s latest “Dairy: World Markets and Trade” report, milk supply from the top 5 global exporting countries is projected to increase 1.6% in 2026, reflecting increases across all suppliers. The US has the largest herd in more than 30 years, but replacement heifers are at a low level. More cows and healthy farmgate margins should support further supply gains going forward. National milk output is projected to increase 2.1% YOY in 2026, which would follow a 2.6% YOY expansion in 2025.

NZ’s supply is forecast to reach a record 22.5mmt in 2026 (+2.6% YOY), driven by strong farmgate milk prices and improved producer profitability which have led to modest herd growth. EU27 milk output is expected to rise 1% YOY to 150mmt in 2026, despite a continued decline in the dairy herd. Productivity gains from genetic improvements, automation, and herd management are boosting average yields/cow, offsetting cow number reductions as the sector continues to consolidate. Australia’s and Argentina’s milk production is each expected to increase by 2.4% YOY in 2026.