US January milk output rose 3.2% YOY, shy of expectations. Cow numbers were up  2% YOY with 1.2% YOY growth in average yield per cow, which was an eight-month low. The milking herd is still large – standing around +190,000 head above year-ago levels with 13,000 cows added since the last report. With a growing herd and slaughter rates running below the five-year average, dairymen do not appear to be culling heavily.

California milk output was up 4.7% YOY. Between good weather conditions and bird flu impacts that still lingered in January 2025, output growth was expected to be a bit stronger for the month. All regions with expanded plant capacity continued their growth trend. Kansas (+26%) and South Dakota (+11%) were still on top of the leader board.