US milk production increased 3.4% YOY in July 2025 according to the USDA, following a 3.3% YOY increase in June, and the highest YOY increase since May 2021.

Mild summer temperatures in California helped propel production 3.8% higher YOY. Bird flu did not impact the state until September of last year so the gains in output are impressive, with stronger gains likely in Q4-25. The largest growth in production and cow numbers continued in Kansas, South Dakota, Texas and Idaho. Idaho and Texas combined accounted for 38% of the national milk output growth in July, up by 8.7% YOY and +8.4% YOY respectively.

The national dairy herd increased by 10,000 head in July and was up 159,000 head (or 1.7%) YOY, the largest since 2008. USDA revised May 2025 cow numbers upwards from the previous report by 20,000 head.