US milk production continues to grow albeit at a slower pace, with national milk supplies rising 0.3% YOY in April according to the USDA. The overall increase reflected a 0.3% YOY rise in cow numbers while average yield per cow was just marginally above flat. At 9,430m, cow numbers were down by 16,000 head relative to the prior month, but 26,000 head above the same month in 2022. This time, the government made revision to historical national dairy herd data and found 11,000 more cows in March.

Among major producing states, April milk production in Wisconsin rose by 0.1% YOY while California was down 1.9% YOY. Milk production in Idaho, South Dakota, Texas, Iowa, New York, Michigan and Kansas continued to improve. Supplies trended lower in New Mexico and Florida, down 3.1% and 4% YOY respectively. We estimate Upper Midwest supplies rose 1.7% YOY while Desert states were down 0.5% YOY in April.