US milk production continues to grow at a slower pace, with milk supplies rising 0.6% YOY in May according to the USDA which was a 3-month high. The overall increase was a result of a 0.1% YOY rise in cow numbers while average yield per cow rose 0.5% YOY. At 9,430m, cow numbers were flat relative to the prior month and 13,000 head above the same month in 2022. This time, the government did not make any revisions to historical dairy herd data.

Among major producing states, May milk production in Wisconsin rose by 1.3% YOY and California was down 0.7% YOY. Milk production in Idaho, South Dakota, Texas, Iowa, New York, Michigan and Kansas continued to improve. Supplies continued to decline in New Mexico (-3.8% YOY) and Florida (-6.7% YOY). At the regional level, we estimate Upper Midwest supplies rose 2% YOY while Desert states were down 0.7% YOY.