Milk production growth forecast for 2024 was lowered from the prior month in USDA’s September WASDE report. The reduction is due to lower forecast cow inventories and a slower growth rate of milk per cow for the remainder of 2024. The slower growth in milk per cow is carried into 2025. Milk output is expected to decline in 2024 at 102.5bn kgs after being flat in 2023. USDA expects a 0.9% expansion in 2025.

The 2024 all-milk price forecast was increased from the prior month to US$0.454/l, compared to US$0.403/l in 2023. This increase reflected lower milk production expectations and recent price strength for cheese, dry whey, NFDM and butter. Next year’s price is expected to increase to US$0.462/l.

The September WASDE was neutral for corn and soybeans. The USDA surprised the market by raising its corn yield estimate despite a hot and dry August. World ending stocks were forecast  below the August estimate but are still large. The . However, USDA left its US soybean yield estimate unchanged while estimated ending stocks were slightly higher. Upside price moves should remain limited as harvest selling pressure increases.