In its June WASDE report, the USDA milk production forecast for 2022 was lowered by 0.2% points from the previous month, reflecting lower average growth in per cow yield. Milk output is now expected to be flat YOY at 102.7bn kgs in 2022 after a 1.3% YOY lift in 2021. Milk production for 2023 is forecast 1.3% above 2022 but assumed average yields per cow are also lower from the May report.
Cheese, butter and NFDM 2022 forecast prices were raised from the previous month on recent price strength and strong demand, but the dry whey price was lowered. As a result, both the Class III and Class IV prices were raised for the current calendar year. The 2022 all-milk price forecast was increased from the prior month to US$0.516/l, up from US$0.368/l in 2021 and US$0.361/l in 2020. The 2023 all-milk price is expected to decline 9.2% YOY to US$0.468/l.