The Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range climate and water forecast for October to December is for warmer and wetter conditions across the country.

Above average rainfall is expected for the three-month period across much of eastern Australia and dryer than average in western Tasmania. The forecast above average rain has lifted the risk for flooding in some regions.         

Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for both minimum and maximum temperatures as well as an increased risk of warmer than average nights. There is an elevated risk of fire in the southeast.

Sea surface temperatures for October to December are forecast warmer than average around Australia. In the Pacific,  El Niño–Southern Oscillation is neutral, but La Niña could develop during spring. To the west of Australia, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event is underway increasing the chance of rain from October to December.

  September rainfall was above average across large parts of Australia, however, major dairying regions in the south and southeast experienced below average rain. Parts of the southeast continue to be very dry with soil moisture below average. Water storages are currently around 70% with storages along the east coast at or near capacity while some southern water storages are half full—or half empty—depending on how you look at it.